Gold plunged again today and is trading around $3,910 per ounce. On Monday, the metal jumped 1.9%, its best day in two months. Silver is at $50.23, down 0.8% after rising more than 3% yesterday.

The trigger was oil slumping more than 7%. Iran's president said the supreme leader granted the government greater authority in talks, and Trump hinted at progress. That eased concerns about accelerating inflation and, with them, expectations of further rate hikes that had weighed on a non-yielding metal. Cheap oil is therefore working in gold's favor today.

Let me draw your attention to the scale of the prior decline. In October, gold lost 6.8% and at month-end slipped below the $4,000 mark to reach a one-year low. On October 30, the month?to?date drop was estimated at about 4%, but the outcome was significantly worse. Selling pressure from inflation and Fed rate concerns was compounded by a stock sell-off, with some investors liquidating gold to cover losses from the AI sector pullback.

That vulnerability has not gone away. Asian tech stocks are heading for further losses on Tuesday after the sell-off in US chipmakers. Recall that on October 28 the Fed left rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, and the probability of a December 9 hike was priced at roughly 85%. As long as that expectation remains, any gold rebound runs into yields.

Today are the US midterms, and many market participants say that for gold the fiscal storyline matters more than which party wins. The metal is sensitive to Treasury interventions in the bond market, the government's reliance on short-term debt, and the Fed's ability to hold short-term rates. The election outcome will affect those scenarios and thus indirectly influence the price.

All this suggests that the current gold bounce is driven by Iran news rather than a trend change. I believe that if talks stall again and oil recovers, the metal will come back under pressure. Therefore, I expect gold to remain below $4,000 in the coming sessions.

Technical view: buyers need to reclaim immediate resistance at $3,954 to target $4,001, above which further gains will be difficult. The farther target would be $4,062. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of $3,906. A decisive break below that range would hit bulls hard and push gold toward $3,849, with a further extension to $3,802.