Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, but they are all quite uniform. In Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S., indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for June will be released. Let us recall that the U.S. will release its internal ISM business activity indices, which the market values much more than the S&P indices. Thus, attention can be focused on the European indices, which will be released within the same hour.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, the speeches by European Central Bank representative Boris Vujcic and Bank of England representative Swati Dhingra are notable. However, it should be remembered that two weeks ago, the ECB held a meeting during which it raised rates for the first time in three years, while the BoE and the Federal Reserve held their meetings last week without making any important decisions. Therefore, given the short time since then, it is unlikely that the tone of the central bank representatives could have changed enough for us to hear anything new in their speeches.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. signed an agreement remotely, but too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear question" which is not even mentioned in the current text of the agreement. This is precisely the issue that started the war and could cause it to resume at any moment. Negotiations on the nuclear deal began over the weekend, and some initial progress was achieved. However, Donald Trump has once again been making threats, and Iran is considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz again, so the situation remains tense and charged. The negotiations continue, but their ultimate result is far from certain.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may begin to correct after last week's declines. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1455-1.1474 and the level of 1.1413, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3259-1.3267. In recent days, the market has been unjustifiably buying the U.S. dollar, which may be a trap set by market makers for bears.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.