The test of the price at 1.1740 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair dropped by 15 pips.
According to reports, the main Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose by 0.6% month-on-month in April. Even more significant is the increase in the core index, which rose by 0.4%, exceeding economists' forecasts. This information raises serious concerns about the further development of inflationary processes in the world's largest economy. The increase in the core index, which is considered a more accurate barometer of persistent inflation as it excludes the volatility of food and energy prices, is especially alarming. The 0.4% figure exceeded expectations, suggesting deeper systemic issues than previously assumed due to the war in the Middle East.
Today, the first half of the day will be filled with economic news from the Eurozone. Revised figures on GDP growth for the first quarter of this year are scheduled for release. These figures are a fundamental marker of the region's economic health and can significantly influence current analyst forecasts. Alongside the GDP data, data illustrating trends in the industrial sector will be published. Investors and analysts also await employment data for the Eurozone. The state of the labor market plays a significant role in shaping consumer activity and overall economic momentum. Favorable changes in employment could signal stability in economic growth, while negative signals could raise concerns about potential weakness, putting pressure on the euro.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching an entry price around 1.1745 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1775. At point 1.1775, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. I expect the euro to rise after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1731 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1745 and 1.1775.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1731 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1704, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1745 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1731 and 1.1704.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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